with Igor Makarov and Antoinette Schoar. Working paper.
We examine the dramatic collapse of the Terra blockchain in May 2022. Using granular blockchain data, we analyze the mechanisms underlying the run and draw parallels to the traditional financial system. We show that the early success of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, UST, was fueled by highly subsidized deposit rates, which attracted many investors but created a fragile system prone to runs. The blockchain allowed investors to observe Terra’s worsening fundamentals and monitor each other's exits. The presence of large investors, whose actions were observable and could impact prices, alleviated the need for coordination typical in canonical models of runs. Larger and sophisticated investors reacted faster to adverse signals and served as catalysts for the run. These findings challenge the idea that blockchain transparency levels the playing field and highlight how greater observability and concentration can amplify financial fragility. Our results contribute to the understanding of the limits of private money and the dynamics of runs in fully digital financial systems.
Paper, Twitter thread
Presented at LSE, Northwestern Kellogg, MIT Sloan, 2nd Annual DeFi conference, ICI–SNPI Conference, NYU Stern, McGill, MIT Digital Currency Initiative, LUISS, Bocconi, Chicago Fed, Chicago Booth, NBER Summer Institute 2023, 7th Annual Macroprudential Policy Conference, OSU, CFRI Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Tulane, Frankfurt, Banque de France, Vanderbilt, King's, LBS, Jackson Hole.